油价与就业

kurtli

国内三桶油企业结构精简势在必行 油价即使涨上去 找工作还是会很困难

Joseph

今天，美国油价（WTI）一度跌破50。

wxiu.yang

人心惶惶！挪威很多人失业，油价持续下跌，挪威克朗持续贬值...

qingsong88

找了几个月的工作，还是没找到。今年找工作不是冬天，是冬天中的暴风雪天啊。

773377

wxiu.yang 发表于 2015-1-6 20:45
人心惶惶！挪威很多人失业，油价持续下跌，挪威克朗持续贬值...

http://www.newsinenglish.no/2015 ... ut-business-upbeat/

[size=14.3999996185303px]More than 9,000 jobs in Norway’s oil sector have disappeared as a result of cuts made by employers adjusting to much lower oil prices, reports DNB Markets. Few business leaders seem overly concerned, however, according to the mood at the annual conference of Norway’s largest employers’ organization NHO.

[size=14.3999996185303px]

Investor Jens Ulltveit-Moe (left) and former Hydro CEO Eivind Reiten are among those who see no crisis for the Norwegian economy despite the dive in oil prices. PHOTO: NHO

The annual conference of NHO(Næringslivets Hovedorganisasjon)regularly attracts the country’s top political and business leaders. They filled the Opera House at Bjørvika in Oslo on Thursday, and were remarkably upbeat.

Speakers and members of the audience suggested that seafood production and tourism will be among the sectors replacing oil and gas as the biggest growth industries in Norway. In line with economists and government officials, informal polls of those attending NHO’s annual conference see no crisis and no need for any government bailout programs, at least not yet.

“If we can live with lower oil prices in Rogaland (the county that’s home to Norway’s oil capital of Stavanger), the rest of the country can, too,” Einar Vevatne,  regional director of construction company Skanska, told newspaper Aftenposten. Like his NHO colleagues, he sees new opportunities for other sectors as the Norwegian economy diversifies and starts moving away from oil domination.

Investor Jens Ulltveit-Moe and Eivind Reiten, a former chairman of industrial concern Norsk Hydro, also warned against any government support packages for the oil industry. They see challenges for the national economy in the year ahead but Ulltveit-Moe sees more opportunity than ever before in renewable energy projects and doesn’t want to help oil ventures. “I think we will tackle this (the effects of lower oil prices and a weaker Norwegian krone) quite well,” Reiten told newspaper Dagsavisen. “This has nothing to with any crisis. This is a natural swing in business that can handle it.”

Statoil’s acting chairman Eldar Sætre noted that Norway’s largest company is concentrating on cost-cutting instead, and is prepared for the consequences of lower oil prices. “It wasn’t unexpected for us that the oil price can fall,” he told Aftenposten. “At the same time, the fall in the past few months has been bigger than expected. This is a situation we have prepared for.”

As Statoil reduces staffing and cuts costs, it’s also reportedly leasing out space in its relatively new Oslo-area headquarters at Fornebu because it’s not needed any more.

“很多人”才9000个，大佬们对前景还很乐观，惶惶屁啊，08年是怎么过来的。

Mr_Xi007

作为一个今年6月毕业的硕士生，现在还没找到工作，压力确实有点大。我主研油藏描述，还是想从事技术相关的，但最近也在考虑为了就业是不是也该考虑别的方向或领域。请问郝老师怎么看？

李康

Mr_Xi007 发表于 2015-1-11 17:35
作为一个今年6月毕业的硕士生，现在还没找到工作，压力确实有点大。我主研油藏描述，还是想从事技术相关的 ...

哪个学校的，同硕士 也没找到工作

wxiu.yang

773377 发表于 2015-1-11 04:39
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2015 ... ut-business-upbeat/
More than 9,000 jobs in Norway’s oil se ...

9000多人在挪威来说也不算小数字了。这边很多小公司规模几百人几十人的都有，9000多人相当于几十个这种规模的小公司了。[size=15.1999998092651px]目前失去工作岗位的基本上难有工作机会，同时挪威克朗疯狂贬职，工资水平缩水严重。这种情况下各种类型的报道都有。大家当然都希望乐观的结果，可是心里有担心却是正常的。下面一篇报道提到这次严重危机使得挪威政府开始考虑开发其他类型经济... ...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2015-01-08/norway-on-alert-as-oil-losses-have-government-exploring-options.html

A 56 percent plunge in the price of Brent crude since a June high has undermined Norway’s currency and beaten back its stock market. The krone has lost 20 percent against the dollar over the period. Norway’s benchmark equity index is down 9 percent. Oil producers including the country’s biggest, Statoil ASA (STL), and service companies have already cut thousands of jobs to adjust and unions are calling for government measures to protect the industry.

“The decline has been stronger and gone faster than we had expected,” Eldar Saetre, chief executive officer of state-backed Statoil, said yesterday in an interview. “The development we’re seeing is a reminder that we’re in a cyclical industry, and that we need to have a cost level in this industry that can sustain these types of cycles and let us be competitive over time.”

Scandinavia’s richest economy is now facing the flipside of an oil reliance that has supported an economic boom over the past decade. Though successive governments have sought to avoid overheating by channeling oil income into the country’s $840 billion sovereign wealth fund, Norway’s plight now shows those efforts weren’t enough to wean it off oil.

The krone slid 0.6 percent to 9.046 per euro as of 11:36 a.m. in Oslo.

An Emergency

“Right now, there’s somewhat of a state of emergency in the oil industry -- some would call it a panic,” Walter Qvam, CEO of Kongsberg Gruppen ASA (KOG), a Norwegian defense and oil services company, said in an interview. “Norway needs this reminder, and it’s very good that we’re getting it now. We’re going to stay an oil nation, but we now need to create the next version of Norway, because the version we’ve been living in for the past 35 years is on the wane.”

Solberg said her government is working on models that will help the $510 billion economy speed up its shift away from fossil fuels and over to other industries.

“The long-term adjustments that come from this will be good for Norway,” Solberg said. Oil and gas today account for more than one-fifth of gross domestic product.

The government has already pledged to spend a record amount of the nation’s oil wealth -- or about 6.4 percent of GDP -- on expenditure this year to support the economy.

773377

wxiu.yang 发表于 2015-1-12 20:02
9000多人在挪威来说也不算小数字了。这边很多小公司规模几百人几十人的都有，9000多人相当于几十个这种规 ...

对欧元贬值是贬了不少，但是以挪威的工资水平，即使经过贬值，换算成欧元，也还是比德国荷兰法国这些国家的工资高。克朗贬值对挪威人的唯一影响就是度假的时候少喝两杯酒而已——嗯，是的，工资可以缩水，假绝对不能不度。挪威的物价现在也没变化呢吧。何况克朗贬值对出口是大大的利好，皇家三文鱼公司的股票最近涨了多少了。

裁掉的位置多数是临时的合同工，期满后不再续约而已，这些人本来就是给东家打两个月工，然后给西家再打两月，不是多少十几个人的小公司成批成批倒闭。永久性职位很少有掉的，裁一个永久职位的成本太大。11和12月的失业率数据还没出来，但是预期数字也就是从3.8升到3.9。

wxiu.yang

773377 发表于 2015-1-12 20:45
对欧元贬值是贬了不少，但是以挪威的工资水平，即使经过贬值，换算成欧元，也还是比德国荷兰法国这些国家 ...

分析得很宏观，克朗的贬值的确是让出口企业受惠，可是对于工作在石油行业的个人来讲，出口企业受惠对自己的工资没有直接影响。克朗贬值就是代表工资缩水了。不是非常了解其他欧洲国家的工资水平，或许工资水平没有挪威高，但是消费也比挪威低很多。挪威人在外面度假1年也就1个月，剩下11个月需要在本地消费的。如果工资水平降低了，就代表生活质量会降低。10挪威克朗在法国能买矿泉水，在挪威什么都买不到。

失业的人员比例来讲，合同制员工是多于永久雇员。合同工也是跟着项目走的，有项目在就有岗位，有的项目短1-2年，长的项目也有5年以上的。几个月一直跳来跳去的员工毕竟是少数。现在9000多人都流入人才市场，就业岗位又这么少，估计失业的这些人很少能把失业空窗期当成假期过。在这里工作的人，市场不景气的时候，心里有担心是正常的。经济好的时候单位总有open的职位，肯定也不会想到失业的问题啊。

其实说来说去，不过是看一个人的心理强大与否罢了。在情况不是十分明朗的时候，安全感低的人草木皆兵，心理强大的人镇定自若。至少我从朋友圈子里听到了两种声音。