转行，我能理解却并不鼓励的原因

Joseph

一点小补充：
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/17/s ... es-for-decades.html
CNBC -
World needs to invest $25 trillion in new oil capacity over next 25 years, Saudi Aramco's CEO says

Demand for oil and gas will continue to grow for the next few decades and any fall in capital investment for the industry will cause "spikes" in prices and affect the global economy, according to the president and CEO of Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco).

Speaking Tuesday at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Amin Nasser told a Wall Street Journal panel that $25 trillion would need to be invested over the 25 years on new oil capacity to meet rising demand. He added that renewable energy will gain a market share over the long term but it would not be dominant.

"It will take decades for [renewables] to replace petroleum resources. So what we are doing in Saudi Aramco, we are building our capacity in the oil," he said.

He said that the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had oil capacity of 12.5 million barrels per day and it continues to build on that capacity, as well as expanding its gas portfolio.

"We will be doubling our gas over the next decade," he said at the event. "[This will] enable us to put more crude [oil] onto the market," he added.

Oil prices have seen a dramatic fall since mid-2014 due to oversupply in the industry with analysts also noting a fall in demand. Saudi Aramco has underlined plans to diversify its production.

The Saudi Aramco CEO iterated that there was still healthy demand, however, even with long-term predictions that stretch out to 2060. He added that oil "will be with us for decades."

He said that more expansion is need needed in the sector and more capital would be required.

ninedays

唉，道理我都懂，我去了一个油田，女朋友去了另外一个油田，两地没办法啊，只能都不去油田了。。。。。

773377

道理是对，可是试错的成本在中国太高了。没错，按规律十年八年后能源行业应该还有个峰值，可是人要结婚，丈母娘要房，小孩要上学，谁愿意等，谁又等得起十年八年？在中国的生存难度是比较大的，不要说刻意去试错，仅仅是一次运气不好，可能就会把人生赔进去好多年。

所以，许多人看到当下什么火就扎进去，不光是“浮躁”“没耐心”“眼光不够长远”能打发的，实在是一种生存智慧，一种被逼出来的很无奈的智慧。上一波按规律和模型办事，坚信中国房价早就过高了的年轻人，被现实无情地拍死了一遍又一遍。许多时候中途退出，不是不知道胜利在何方，是根本就没有那个资本去坚持到胜利，哪怕明知道周围一窝蜂涌上去的人都是蠢货，自己也得一起去犯蠢。十年后证明我对了——对了又怎么样？未来还有四五十年要去后悔自己女朋友嫁做他人妇，诸如此类的事情。
所以，与楼主的观点想反，我是鼓励转行的，特别是人在中国又年轻的各位。计算得失的时候，要把时间这个重要变量算上。

Carver

老兄，有炼厂设计能力或者资源吗