沙特称石油策略成功 油价见底

小小学徒

沙特阿拉伯政府一名官员说，沙特抗衡高成本竞争对手的石油策略正获成功。

英国《金融时报》１４日报道，沙特原油产量上月提高至创纪录的日均１０３０万桶。尚无迹象表明，沙特计划在６月石油输出国组织（欧佩克）会议期间改变这一策略。

一名沙特官员告诉《金融时报》记者：“毫无疑问，过去数月的价格下跌使投资者延缓购买高价油，包括美国页岩油、深海油和重油。”

国际能源署１３日发布的数据为沙特的判断提供了支撑。数据显示，美国仍在运转的钻塔数量减少６０％。

不过，国际能源署提醒，现在得出欧佩克将赢得“市场份额之战”的结论为时过早。这家机构认为，全球原油供给不断增加，供给方既包括巴西等高成本产油国，也包括伊朗和伊拉克等欧佩克成员国。

但沙特认为，即使能源行业竞争日趋激烈，沙特也将保住自己在这一行业的主导地位。上述沙特官员说：“沙特想延续石油年代。我们希望石油继续作为一种主要能源被使用。我们想成为这一能源的主要产出国。”

这名官员说，油价已经见底，但“貌似不会回升”。

他同时承认，不排除美国页岩油商等随油价走低提高效能的可能；油价反弹的影响“尚未可知”。

美国最大页岩油生产商依欧格资源公司说，如果美国西德克萨斯中质原油价格反弹至每桶６５美元及以上，美国页岩油产量将呈现两位数增长。这一油价基准现为每桶６１美元。

Joseph

原文:

Saudi claims oil price strategy success

AnjliRaval in Riyadh

Saudi Arabia says its strategy of squeezing high-cost rivals such as US shale producers issucceeding, as the world’s largest crude exporter seeks to reassert itself asthe dominant force in the global oil market.

The kingdom’s production rose to a record high of 10.3m barrels a day inApril and there is no sign that it plans to reverse its policy at next month’smeeting of Opec, the producers’ cartel, in Vienna.

“There is no doubt about it, the price fall of the last several months hasdeterred investors away from expensive oil including US shale, deep offshoreand heavy oils,” a Saudi official told the Financial Times in Riyadh, giving arare insight into the kingdom’s thinking on oil strategy.

TheInternational Energy Agency, the world’s leading energy forecaster,on Wednesday released data backing up the Saudi position. The agency said thatwith the number of rigs running in the US plunging by 60 per cent in responseto lower oil prices, US shale oil production had “buckled” in April, “bringinga multiyear winning streak to an apparent close”.

But the IEA also cautioned that it would be “premature” to suggest thatOpec had “won the battle for market share”. It said global crude supply wasgrowing, even from high-cost areas such as Brazil, as well as from other Opecmember states such as Iran and Iraq.

However, the Saudi official said he expected the kingdom to maintain itsdominance of global energy, despite the growth of alternatives to fossil fuelsand competition from rival oil producers within Opec and beyond. “Saudi Arabiawants to extend the age of oil,” he said. “We want oil to continue to be usedas a major source of energy and we want to be the major producer of thatenergy.”

The official was speaking nearly six months after Opec, which is led bySaudi Arabia, took its landmarkdecision to keep output steady in the face of rising supply fromrivals, rather than play its traditional role of cutting production to supportprices.

The decision triggered a fresh fall in the oil price, throwing the budgetsof the poorest exporter countries into disarray and forcing internationalenergy companies to slash spending, drilling and jobs.

Saudi officials later explained that the policy was designed to putpressure on producers that require a higher oil price to be economic such as USshale drillers and companies operating in Brazil’s offshore fields. These theybelieved would be the first to collapse in a survival of the fittest as pricesplunged.

Expectations are already rising that the market could soon start to tightenby midyear. The IEA said on Wednesday that was one of the reasons for therecent rally in the oil price: having crashed from $115 a barrel last June toalmost $45 in January, Brent, the international crude benchmark, is now back up at around $68.

The Saudi official said the price of oil had now “reached a bottom” and it“doesn’t look like it is going back”.

But experts say it is too soon to say whether Saudi Arabia is succeeding inincreasing its market share. Data from 2011-14 show that while its share ofimports to India and Japan has grown, in China it has lost out to Opec peersIran and Iraq.

US shale producers would also disagree that Saudi Arabia has succeeded insqueezing them. The US oil industry has slowed down: but EOG Resources,the country’s largest shale oil producer, has forecast a return to“double-digit” production growth if the US benchmark, West Texas Intermediate,rises to $65 per barrel or higher. It is currently trading at around $61.

The Saudi official admitted “increased efficiencies” were likely as USshale and other producers adjusted to lower prices. He also said the impact ofthe price rebound was still “unknown” and “there is not yet any clarity on theUS supply curve and drivers”.

The comments from Riyadh come with the Saudi oil sector facing deepuncertainty in the wake of sweeping changes to the governance of the oil ministryand the state energy company Saudi Aramco by King Salman, who ascended to thethrone in January.

Some oil sectorobservers in Saudi Arabia say that King Salman’s accession increased pressureon veteran oil minister Ali Al Naimi and the advocates of his oil productionstrategy to reaffirm their position.

Joseph

It said global crude supply was growing, even from high-cost areas such as Brazil, as well as from other Opec member states such as Iran and Iraq. 这句翻得真是让人无语！

小小学徒

Joseph 发表于 2015-5-15 14:24
It said global crude supply was growing, even from high-cost areas such as Brazil, as well as from  ...

确实，翻译曲解原意了。