Production decline analysis of horizontal well in gas shale reservoirs

zhuhouqin

The major factor influencing the increase of natural gas use is the rise in its global
demand. Due to the relentlessly increasing demand, there have been improvements in the
techniques and technology used in recovering natural gas from shale gas reservoirs,
including drilling a horizontal well and hydraulic fracturing. One of the significant
challenges associated with gas shale production is that it is difficult to reliably predict
ultimate recovery and estimate reserves, leading to great risk in exploitation of these
resources. The purpose of this research is to evaluate the current decline curve analysis
techniques and provide a more reliable method for production forecast and reserve
estimate for hydraulically fractured horizontal wells producing from gas shale reservoirs.
When production data of low permeability reservoirs are analyzed using Arp’s
equation, the decline exponent b which is supposed to range between 0 and 1 is usually
greater than 1. The actual decline exponent b value is not easy to come by in the transient
period during the life of the well, however, having a decline exponent b value greater
than 1 will overestimate the remaining reserves of the well.
In this study, first, decline characteristics for shale gas wells are presented by
simulating long-term production performance for a variety of well-reservoir systems,
including Dimensionless fracture conductivity change, different fracture stages and
fracture half- length; then different current decline analysis methods were evaluated in
estimating reserves and predicting future performances. These methods are Conventional
Decline Curve Analysis, the Backward Method and the Ilk Method. The evaluation task
was done through quantitative comparison of production forecast results from current
decline analysis with true simulated recovery.

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