外文信息翻译版本-沙特主权财富基金计划

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沙特阿拉伯的两万亿美元的主权财富有多现实？

虽然沙特的两万亿美金计划已经流露出了实力和财富，但是筹集这样一个巨型的基金几乎是不现实的。除非国际油价有一个非常大的飞跃，亦或者沙特想要卖掉一大部分阿美石油公司的股份。

沙特皇太子默罕默德。宾。所罗门在彭博社的五小时超长采访中概述了他为未来的沙特王国构画的雄伟宏图。他想要降低沙特在石油方面的依赖。然而，他的未来规划依然存在很多阻碍。

沙特的储备在进一步飞速消耗     

从2014年起，沙特的储备就有一个约1500亿美金的严重消耗。光说2015年，在国际油价跌至均价48.67美元一桶时，沙特就在储备上划去了1150亿美金。而在2016年一月，汇丰的经济学家Simon Williams和 Razan Nazzer发表的报告中，沙特的外汇储备下跌了超过140亿美金。

美国的EIA预估油价在2016年均价为34.04/b，在2017年略微上涨至40.09/b。如果原油价格均价在2017年底仍然低于40美元，那么沙特在未来两年中将面临可能失去另外1500到2000亿美金左右的储备。另一部分专家认为，如果油价无法回温，沙特的储备将可能在2018年降至 2000亿美金。

假设储备下跌到一个非常严重的情况，沙特将面对的将是无法维持里亚尔与美金的兑换汇率的底限。放弃汇率下跌的底限将导致各种的让王国陷入困境的严重问题。

阿美石油的估计可能无法超过2.5万亿美元

王子殿下期望从出售阿美石油的旗舰股份的5%以获取一笔巨大的资金。毫无疑问，阿美石油将会被估成天价 -- 不管怎么样，沙特阿美石油公司每天产出的1000万桶原油已经堪比全美国的石油公司每天产能的总和。当然这依然无法比拟沙特皇冠珠宝的价值。

阿美石油公司粗略估计每天从油田产出2600亿桶石油储备。如果将每一桶的估价定位10美元，阿美石油公司的市值还是可以超过25万亿美元的。如王子殿下预计的只放售5%的股份，这些股份的将接近1250亿美金。由于低油价的原因，这个价钱基本上等于沙特2015从境外获取的石油储备。

因此，出售阿美石油5%的股份仅仅可以填补这么一年内沙特的国际石油储备。

当然，这里有人会异议10美元一桶的油价实在过低。不过在一个研究比较中表明国营公司基本展现出一个很类似的价格。例如俄罗斯石油公司，一个每天出产500万桶的公司，市场资本估价为350万亿美元。 或者，掌控巴西大部分石油的巴西国家石油公司，也被估计为230亿美金。只有中国的石油公司有一个比较高的估价。

所以，在未来几年石油价格持续低迷的情况下，仅仅靠着出售阿美石油的5%股份就获得2万亿美金的计划将会是一个过高的预期。

虽然沙特代理皇太子殿下的蓝本看起正在往正确的方向发展，国际原油价格和价格评估的方法目前来看还是不太支持他的想法。如果阿美石油公司的市值估计接近2.5万亿美金，它的利润将远远超过谷歌和苹果公司。 然而这些依然无法足够的资金满足沙特2万亿基金计划的需求。之后沙特将完善的具体核心策略，届时我们可以得到更加详尽的剖析。

ByRakesh Upadhyay for Oilprice.com

翻译：Kevin Yang

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How Realistic Is Saudi Arabia’s $2 TrillionSovereign Wealth Fund?

----RakeshUpadhyay

Though Saudi Arabia’s plan ofa $2 trillion fund exudes power andconfidence, raising a mega fund of that size is practically next to impossible, unless crude oilprices see a significant appreciation or Saudi Arabia plans to sell a higherportion of Aramco.

TheSaudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has outlined ambitious plans forthe future of the Kingdom in his five-hour long interview with Bloomberg. Hewants to reduce Saudi Arabia’s dependence on oil; however, there are numeroushiccups to his proposed plans.

Saudi reserves are depleting at a fast pace

From its peak in 2014, the Saudi reserves havedepleted by a whopping $150 billion. In 2015 alone, the Kingdom consumed $115billion in reserves, when the crude oil prices averaged $48.67 per barrel. Evenin January 2016, the FX reserves dropped by more than $14 billion, according tothe HSBC economists Simon Williams and Razan Nazzer, asreported by the business insider.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)expects crude oil prices to average $34.04/b in 2016 and $40.09/b in 2017. Ifthe crude oil averages below $40 till the end of 2017, the Saudi Kingdom willlikely lose another $150 to 200 billion from their reserves in the next twoyears. A few experts expect the reserves to drop to $200 billion by 2018 ifthe oil prices don’t recover.

Ifthe reserves drop below a critical level, Saudi Arabia will be unable tomaintain the riyal’s peg to the U.S. dollar. Abandoning the peg will usher in adifferent set of problems, which the Kingdom cannot afford.

Aramco might not command a valuation of more than $2.5trillion

PrinceSalman expects to raise large sums from the sale of 5 percent in the flagshipSaudi Aramco. There is no doubt that Aramco will be valued astronomically;after all, it pumps 10 million barrels per day, which is the equivalent of whatall the companies combined in the U.S. pump each day. However, it is difficultto arrive at a valuation for the crown jewel of Saudi Arabia.

Aramco also has roughly 260 billion barrels of oilreserves. Considering a $10 per barrel valuation of the reserves, Aramco willbe worth more than $2.5 trillion. Asthe Prince plans to divest only a 5 percent stake in the giant, it turns out tobe closer to $125 billion, which is roughly equal to the amount of reservesthat Saudi Arabia drew from its foreign reserves in 2015 as a result of low oilprices.

Thusa 5 percent stake sale in Aramco will only replenish theforeign reserves used up in a single year.

Thougha few might argue that a $10/b valuation is too low, a comparative study of theother existing state-run oil companies shows a similar valuation across theboard. The Russian Rosneft OAO, which pumps 5 million barrels a day, has amarket capitalization of $35 billion. Similarly, Petroleo Brasileiro SA, whichcontrols a large part of the Brazilian oil, is valued at $23 billion. Only theChinese companies such as PetroChina have higher valuations.

Hence,generating $2 trillion in the next few years by selling only 5 percent inAramco, especially with oil at such low levels, will be a tall ask.

Thoughthe plans of the Saudi Arabian deputy crown prince seem to be heading in theright direction, oil prices and valuation mathematics don’t seem to besupporting them. If the market values Aramco close to $2.5 trillion, it willdwarf Google and Apple by a huge margin, but this valuation will not fetch theKingdom sufficient money for it to launch a $2 trillion fund. We will get moreclarity when the Kingdom lays down its concrete strategy.

ByRakesh Upadhyay for Oilprice.com